Parole Bonus and Penalties

[ble210]

I really love the new parole system, but am not sure if the new 3k bonus to 10k fine is the best way to go. As of now, having anything more than a 23% reoffense chance release bar will result in a net loss for your prison. For example, if you set it at 50%, you will see see an average loss of 7000 per inmate released (the average of two released is 10k-3k). 23% is the exact break-even point, so the only way to make money over the long-term is to set the release bar below 23%.

[blipadouzi]

I really love the new parole system, but am not sure if the new 3k bonus to 10k fine is the best way to go. As of now, having anything more than a 23% reoffense chance release bar will result in a net loss for your prison. For example, if you set it at 50%, you will see see an average loss of 7000 per inmate released (the average of two released is 10k-3k). 23% is the exact break-even point, so the only way to make money over the long-term is to set the release bar below 23%.

Your math is flawless and you've just made the exact point for keeping those values. Your goal is to have your reoffending rate as low as possible, that's the endgame. Settings the bar between 10% (extremely low) and 20% (extremely high) is the perfect middle ground. The idea isn't to make money but to reform your prisoners. So if your bar is set to 20% and you're only releasing 2 out of 25 prisoners because not enough of them meet the requirement, then maybe you need to review your prison policies, armed guards (suppression), reform programs, etc.

[Inge Jones]

Yeah but to make this logic complete, early parole needs to be a motivation for prisoners to behave better. So far in this game I am not sure that prisoners modify their own behaviour in order to avoid future punishment or get future rewards. They only seem to modify in response to a punishment they have just had, or a recent benefit that has made them in a good mood. Even in real life not all prisoners are capable or willing to self-regulate, but many should.

[RlyDontKnow]

Those calculations floating around for a break-even point are based on the assumption that all prisoners released have exactly that limit as chance which is certainly not the case.

E.g. out of my last 100 released prisoners only 5 prisoners had a re-offending chance above 20% (which were the supermax and protective custody ones which I don't reform in that prison) and the majority of the rest had a 2% chance (depending on the drug addictions mostly...). But even assuming everyone else had the 20% chance I could easily set my parole rate to 100% and break more than even. It's not your parole rate that decides whether you break even, it's the mean re-offending chance prisoners with at most your parole rate have and that'll (almost) certainly be lower than your parole rate.

If you want to release those with a high re-offending chance that's fine, but you got to make decisions here. Do you want those who aren't as reformed as they could be to stay longer so you can reform them more? Do you want to just get rid of those who don't want to be reformed? Do you squeeze money out of prisoners and want to get rid of them asap and don't care how they do - maybe even because you have to (e.g. think of continuous intake)? It's up to you how to set things up.

And if you are as much of a money squeezing guy as you sound to be you shouldn't care at all, just deny it or have an armed guard watch over the denied guys while everyone else cuts planks.

[Inge Jones]

I'd really like it if the player could make final decision. The parole board shortlists those who passed, and the player can either just say ok to them all or untick any he wants to keep back a while longer.

[zbyrne]

Yeah but to make this logic complete, early parole needs to be a motivation for prisoners to behave better. So far in this game I am not sure that prisoners modify their own behaviour in order to avoid future punishment or get future rewards. They only seem to modify in response to a punishment they have just had, or a recent benefit that has made them in a good mood. Even in real life not all prisoners are capable or willing to self-regulate, but many should.

I'd strongly agree. I've said somewhere else in the forums that this could be applied in both the short term and long term, long term being parole, early release etc. Short term being a desire to protect whatever privileges a prisoners has gotten himself, workouts, library, tv time, mass etc.

I'd say that currently the game is like many sims in that it's primarily needs management - which is perhaps why the game becomes less interesting after a point, because eventually the optimal timetable, and layout staff ratios etc will be found, allowing everything to run on auto-pilot, (which led to the intro of legendaries, which exist pretty much to be unmanageable).

In addition to the above you need to be able to design a process which punishes bad behaviour, but also rewarded good, rather than trying to keep everyone in a good mood so as to avoid problems.

[Kilmannan]

I'd really like it if the player could make final decision. The parole board shortlists those who passed, and the player can either just say ok to them all or untick any he wants to keep back a while longer.

But.... you already do make that decision with your parole release percentile.

If you took it any further it would be both unrealistic and a complete pain in the ass when you kept having to stop and deal with paroled prisoners to the stage where it would just become a check box exercise.

What you could have is conditions.

- No parole for murder
- No parole for rape
- No parole for murder whilst serving time

etc, etc.

[Inge Jones]

So make it optional. I was only talking about getting the list once a day anyway, not after every parole interview. In real life I doubt if prisoners hear the decision then and there. Heh, then I could make sure everyone was locked up when I made the decisions, in case anyone became "disappointed"

[RlyDontKnow]

I'd say that currently the game is like many sims in that it's primarily needs management - which is perhaps why the game becomes less interesting after a point, because eventually the optimal timetable, and layout staff ratios etc will be found, allowing everything to run on auto-pilot, (which led to the intro of legendaries, which exist pretty much to be unmanageable).

The sims part might be true, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. After all finding such an optimal setup is a challenge by itself and quite rewarding once you achieved it.

Also I wouldn't say legendaries are unmanageable, but they are indeed quite a challenge for an "auto-pilot" (at least some of them - extremely volatile+tough+deadly + fearless + stoical + expert figher/extremely strong comes to my mind there).

Anyway, with the traits you can't really run on auto-pilot, anyway, as you have to at least manage the intakes. Then again this isn't a bad thing imo - it's highly rewarding to figure out your way of building a prison that is actually able to run on auto-pilot once the intake has been processed. Imo the game is all about making a plan, putting it to work, analyzing what flaws it had and then rolling out the next iteration. Now sure you keep rebuilding, but that's the point. I'd really prefer the building part getting even more challenging so it takes you even longer to achieve the "auto-pilot" stage than adding a big bunch of "oh noes, I need attention" events that are simply made to prevent you from automating your prison (which in turn means you can't pay attention to what is really wrong - e.g. if you keep getting distracted by fancy events you'll never notice you don't have enough serving tables).

And honestly: I doubt that you could build an auto-pilot prison ending (with a decent re-offending chance and no deaths) without sinking 100h+ unless you just copy what you found somewhere (alpha bugs and weirdnesses put aside already), so the building part is imo enough content by itself.


Anyway, yes, I'd certainly be all for options to actively encourage your prisoners to behave. The whole positive reinforcement part is quite lacking atm. (Just like the negative one, though. You can punish a prisoner (who doesn't even have any addictions) for stealing drugs 60 days in a row and he'll still attempt to do it the next day despite never having been successful).

[SonofSuperJoe]

If nothing else, the slider for what the acceptable re-offending rate may need some work.

Since I don't think the Re-offending rate CAN reach zero, that shouldn't probably be an option, and I can see zero reason anyone would set the parole rate to 100% because that would mean just letting everyone serve half sentences with a bunch of penalties and rewards flying by.

One thing I'd like to see now that the parole system is in: longer years and year tracking.

The current "year" is 5 days. This is incredibly short and has little analogue to anything resembling sense to someone picking up the game for the first time. If it were 6 days, with each day representing two months in a year, that would make WAY more sense, but 5?

Honestly the only reason the year is likely so short as it currently is so prisoner releases could actually happen somewhat often without the parole system in place.

But now that the parole system is in place, with prisoners serving half or 75% of their sentences, the short years are going to mean that even in a perfectly run prison with few to no deaths and escapes, setting the parole release rate at an optimal number is going to mean that prisoners flow out of your prison at a much higher rate than before. Which is problematic in my mind as it makes intake much harder to manage (since it's a random number of prisoners per day), and you can't really let prisoners spend that much actual time in your prison to "get to know them" or deal with them on an up close level, which seems kind of like a major intent in the game what with all the names, traits, and reputations and the like.

The solution is to make the year to day ratio "longer".

I mentioned this in another thread, and I still think this should be an option in the create new prison screen, similar to the Game Length option in a game like Civ. But it would go like this -

Very Short Game - 6 Days/Year
Short Game - 12 Days/Year (a day to month ratio is very reasonable)
Normal Game - 24 Days/Year
Long Game - 72 Days/Year
Hardcore Game - 365 Days/Year (though I doubt very many players would ever want this option)

[ble210]

Those calculations floating around for a break-even point are based on the assumption that all prisoners released have exactly that limit as chance which is certainly not the case.

Very good point, and you're right. But the 23% rate, as opposed to being a break-even point, remains the threshold by which prisoners released above that rate will result in (over the long run) a net loss for the prison.

[ble210]

I really love the new parole system, but am not sure if the new 3k bonus to 10k fine is the best way to go. As of now, having anything more than a 23% reoffense chance release bar will result in a net loss for your prison. For example, if you set it at 50%, you will see see an average loss of 7000 per inmate released (the average of two released is 10k-3k). 23% is the exact break-even point, so the only way to make money over the long-term is to set the release bar below 23%.

Your math is flawless and you've just made the exact point for keeping those values. Your goal is to have your reoffending rate as low as possible, that's the endgame. Settings the bar between 10% (extremely low) and 20% (extremely high) is the perfect middle ground. The idea isn't to make money but to reform your prisoners. So if your bar is set to 20% and you're only releasing 2 out of 25 prisoners because not enough of them meet the requirement, then maybe you need to review your prison policies, armed guards (suppression), reform programs, etc.

Good point as well. I just wish there was something more complicated than the system as is now; all you have to do is set the rate at something less than 23%, and you're good to go. I don't know what that is, but I would like to see this system expanded upon somehow.

[lugaru]

I do hope moodlets are able to influence the percentage, and maybe the moodlets should be invisible.

So for example if a prisoner has NEVER committed an infraction (which can be tough since they are contraband magnets) they might get a huge bonus. There could be several degrees of this. Ultimately what it means is that prisoners might behave extra well because they look forward to being paroled and never coming back.

Then that guy murdering a doctor with a clipboard? You and I know he is not going anywhere.

[mideg]

In the end, I find it difficult that it's being decided on a hard fact reoffending chance.

Neither you nor the -judge- warden that decides about parole should know that reoffending chance. It should be based on known incidents. Maybe a point-based system, in which you can give each incident a number of points worth and during parole the threshold will be some points over time in your prison number (set by you).

Bonus effect: One could try and allow security ratings for prisoners being set by those points. So, prisoners without points (meaning they didn't do any incidents you deem punishable) will get lower security rating after some time and wrongdoers can be "promoted" to high security without as much micromanagment.

[czar mohab]

In the end, I find it difficult that it's being decided on a hard fact reoffending chance.

Neither you nor the -judge- warden that decides about parole should know that reoffending chance. It should be based on known incidents. Maybe a point-based system, in which you can give each incident a number of points worth and during parole the threshold will be some points over time in your prison number (set by you).

Bonus effect: One could try and allow security ratings for prisoners being set by those points. So, prisoners without points (meaning they didn't do any incidents you deem punishable) will get lower security rating after some time and wrongdoers can be "promoted" to high security without as much micromanagment.

The re-offending chance is only an estimate (and granted, in terms of life post-prison, we never truly know if they did or did not re-offend beyond what the parole "bonus" says). It is based off of age, family, prior offences, and in-prison experiences (reform success, injury, drug abuse, guard abuse, etc.). Because this is an estimated value and not a hard line statement of fact, the number should always be available to the player and the parole board. Additionally, this number is assumed, based on the individual and his experience both in and out of prison, to be generated by an outside entity (prison grader, if you will).

Older people are less likely to offend or re-offend vs. youths. People with larger families are less likely to offend or re-offend vs. those with fewer to no family members. A better educated populace generally has less criminal activity (or is better at not getting caught, at least) vs. a populace containing fewer educated persons, or a lower education standard overall. Someone who's never committed a crime before is less likely to re-offend vs. someone with multiple offences (and indeed, career criminals). These are just some facts of criminal activity that the Devs put in-game that play a factor in the estimated re-offending value assigned to any given prisoner. Obviously, a well educated pensioner with a huge supportive family and plenty of positive upbringing that's never seen a jail cell can indeed snap and do something naughty, but this should be considered the exception and not the rule.

In short, several factors are reviewed and go into the re-offending chance value.

Points are already awarded or deducted for in-prison activities. Too much idle time? Deduct points. Finish a reform program? Add points. These points are used, along with some maths and sciences and such to arrive at the estimated re-offending chance. I understand the idea presented and I like the idea and concept; however, as stated, a points system already exists within the prisoner grading system. I'm not sure how beneficial adding a second system would be since it would use the same data to arrive at a different number to be used with or in lieu of the already existing number.

The player's involvement in parole should only be in providing the room(s) and appropriate staff, setting the terms for early release, and doing whatever it takes to ensure that the prisoners can (or cannot, it depends on the player; some of you are quite unforgiving, after all) meet that requirement through the methods provided within the prison (reform, suppression, etc.).

See Also:
Education vs. Criminality
Age vs. Criminality
Family vs. Criminality
(yes, those are from the US; I don't have the time to research other countries' numbers)
Alpha 20 Video

The Czar