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Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:44 pm
by Ace Rimmer
Haha, if it happened, right before the election, you can be sure Obama would support it as well. :wink:

Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:46 pm
by MikeTheWookiee
Wow, always pop back in here when the interesting threads are out...

Xarlaxas, what about this scenario: Israel pokes Iran such that the strait gets closed or even just threaten it strongly enough to make oil prices go mad. This forces Obama into re-opening them by force to calm prices - if the election campaign is going badly then this scenario could be 'helped along' a little. He would naturally be hoping for something like the Falklands, although the way things have been going for him it could just as easily turn into his own Suez.

Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:36 am
by Feud
Xarlaxas wrote:Iraq and Afghanistan show that America and its Western allies aren't all that well equipped against a prolonged asymmetrical conflict, which is what it would turn into, so, really, the best option is to just not go there and resolve the situation without military means.


Iraq and Afghanistan, if anything, showed that we would be exceptionally capable at seizing it and holding it.

A straight is a clearly defined military objective. In Iraq and Afghanistan, we proved exceptional at attacking, seizing, and holding strategic military objectives. Asymmetrical warfare is good at fighting an occupation force, but terrible at attacking, holding, or defending specific strategic targets.

You can't plant an IED in the middle of the strait (and naval mines are a whole nother ballgame). To strike at shipping you'd need to either have accurate long range ground based units (which asymmetrical warfare lacks, and which we have proved very good at destroying), naval capabilities (Iran's navy doesn't stand a chance, their best hope would be small zodiak styled boat bombs, which everyone would be looking for), or air power (which they don't have a prayer of matching).

The bigger problem would be regional disruption, the reduction in trade flow, and the risk of Iran expanding the conflict into other fronts.

Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 1:23 am
by thedarkknightrises
A few weeks ago Chinese Navy visited Israel.... funny how geopolitics is never so simple....

Image

Also, China recently tested slbm mirv.... where each sub has ten mirv and each mirv is ten nukes. I think they saw my defcon deterrence mod and got inspired [/sarcasm]
This is China's second major test in one month. First a land-based mirv (silo) and now a submarine slbm mirv. It is all about deterrence and asymmetric warfare.

Code: Select all

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/08/24/chinas-ballistic-missiles-a-force-to-be-reckoned-with/



2012 and we live in interesting times indeed... btw, anyone here think Iran is going to get EMP'd?

Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:13 pm
by Forever Young
Found a Israeli strike plan out of a questionable source. will search for it. i can remember about emp and electronic warfare.
her is an other article.
The Israeli attack will open with a coordinated strike, including an unprecedented cyber-attack which will totally paralyze the Iranian regime and its ability to know what is happening within its borders. The internet, telephones, radio and television, communications satellites, and fiber optic cables leading to and from critical installations—including underground missile bases at Khorramabad and Isfahan—will be taken out of action. The electrical grid throughout Iran will be paralyzed and transformer stations will absorb severe damage from carbon fiber munitions which are finer than a human hair, causing electrical short circuits whose repair requires their complete removal. This would be a Sisyphean task in light of cluster munitions which would be dropped, some time-delayed and some remote-activated through the use of a satellite signal.

A barrage of tens of ballistic missiles would be launched from Israel toward Iran. 300km ballistic missiles would be launched from Israeli submarines in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf. The missiles would not be armed with unconventional warheads [WMD], but rather with high-explosive ordnance equipped with reinforced tips designed specially to penetrate hardened targets.

The missiles will strike their targets—some exploding above ground like those striking the nuclear reactor at Arak–which is intended to produce plutonium and tritium—and the nearby heavy water production facility; the nuclear fuel production facilities at Isfahan and facilities for enriching uranium-hexaflouride. Others would explode under-ground, as at the Fordo facility.

A barrage of hundreds of cruise missiles will pound command and control systems, research and development facilities, and the residences of senior personnel in the nuclear and missile development apparatus. Intelligence gathered over years will be utilized to completely decapitate Iran’s professional and command ranks in these fields.

After the first wave of attacks, which will be timed to the second, the “Blue and White” radar satellite, whose systems enable us to perform an evaluation of the level of damage done to the various targets, will pass over Iran. Only after rapidly decrypting the satellite’s data, will the information be transferred directly to war planes making their way covertly toward Iran. These IAF planes will be armed with electronic warfare gear previously unknown to the wider public, not even revealed to our U.S. ally. This equipment will render Israeli aircraft invisible. Those Israeli war planes which participate in the attack will damage a short-list of targets which require further assault.

Among the targets approved for attack—Shihab 3 and Sejil ballistic missile silos, storage tanks for chemical components of rocket fuel, industrial facilities for producing missile control systems, centrifuge production plants and more.

http://www.richardsilverstein.com/tikun_olam/2012/08/15/bibis-secret-war-plan/
i am reading Jerusalem Post, Harretz, Times of Israel, Debkafiles,Stratfor, Global Geopolitics and many more about that theme since February.
i guess Israel is going to attack Iran this year. the israeli doctrin is to prevent a second holocaust. but what will happen? Iran will strike back to Tel Aviv at first, with hundreds of nukes and no one can stop all nukes. no us navy, no patriots or iron domes. also some sources already saying Iran has 1 or 2 nuclear rockets. also Iran will fire hundreds or thousands missiles on the us aircraft carriers and they will make heavy damage. also all west nation bases will be attacked. then the us and allies will strike back. 3 us aircraft carrier strike groups, 1 french carrier and other nato units. russia is warning the west nations since a few months that they will not allow to strike Iran or to invent in Syria.

Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:28 pm
by Ace Rimmer
Russia would certainly be a serious player and make for interesting developments if Israel did/does strike Iran.

Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:32 pm
by Forever Young
can you see my post? for me it is not visible? curious!

Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:38 pm
by Ace Rimmer
Nope, can't see any of it. I used the 'quote' option to read it.

Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:45 pm
by Forever Young
disabled bbcode now. now it is visible. strange!

Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:35 pm
by Laika
I don't think Russia will enter the war, as I see no justification our government could use for it. Nobody here wants new Cold War either.

Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 6:45 am
by Ace Rimmer
Russia doesn't have to get involved in any conflict directly (i.e. military action) to influence events or affect the dynamics of action taken by other nations.

Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:02 am
by Forever Young
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-uIaSRiWA42010!
Russia and China are in a alliance now against the Nato.
i found an article about EMP!
http://www.phantomreport.com/israels-emp-attack-can-send-iran-back-to-the-stone-age
maybe a fake!
i don`t want a war, but i am really interested what will happen. Iran is not Iraq or Afganistan. Iran will fight back with all. also Hamas and Hezbollah will send rockets to Israel. Noone will send troops to invent Iran. Israel has to fight on three borders. what will happen if 1 nuclear, chemical or biological rocket will hit Tel Aviv? Israel has over 200 nuclear heads. newest sources out of german tv are saying Israel has 300-400 atom bombs.

Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:18 am
by NeatNit
Forever Young wrote:disabled bbcode now. now it is visible. strange!
It's all because you opened a new line before [/url]. No idea how that little thing breaks everything but it does.

Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:22 am
by The Mighty Santa
Forever Young wrote:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-uIaSRiWA42010!
Russia and China are in a alliance now against the Nato.
i found an article about EMP!
http://www.phantomreport.com/israels-emp-attack-can-send-iran-back-to-the-stone-age
maybe a fake!
i don`t want a war, but i am really interested what will happen. Iran is not Iraq or Afganistan. Iran will fight back with all. also Hamas and Hezbollah will send rockets to Israel. Noone will send troops to invent Iran. Israel has to fight on three borders. what will happen if 1 nuclear, chemical or biological rocket will hit Tel Aviv? Israel has over 200 nuclear heads. newest sources out of german tv are saying Israel has 300-400 atom bombs.


I'm fairly certain they don't have 300-400, somewhere from 150-250. However, that's still a lot of nukes. For my part, I cannot see why the leaders of the world are so blind about Iran. They talk about "crippling sanctions" when the only thing that does is starve their people. Seriously. When has the UN ever actually had power to do something? All those politicians bullshitting about how Israel's so cruel and brute and all the crap when they're turning a blind eye to all those other nations out there. You know all those Arabs bitching about the Palestinians and Palestinian State? Well at one point, there was one. It was Gaza and West bank and Half of Jerusalem. But they were so fucking dumb they tried to take over the rest. And you know how that worked out. But, even after that, the Palestinians were allowed to stay. But then came the Six Day War. All of those damn Palestinians thought the Israelis would lose and they would come back and take over. So they left. They left to Jordan, and set up makeshift camps, all thinking they would soon go back home. But then Israel won. And they didn't permit those Palestinians to come back, and for good reason too. Have you heard this quote? The Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Do you know how many times they have sat down and the Israeli's have put the option of Gaza and West Bank on the table? Far too many. And they have all been rejected because of their dumbassdness. Anyways, I didn't mean to go into a rant lol.[/rant]

Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 12:07 pm
by Forever Young
NeatNit wrote:
Forever Young wrote:disabled bbcode now. now it is visible. strange!
It's all because you opened a new line before [/url]. No idea how that little thing breaks everything but it does.

ah, i see. thx!
I'm fairly certain they don't have 300-400, somewhere from 150-250. However, that's still a lot of nukes. For my part, I cannot see why the leaders of the world are so blind about Iran. They talk about "crippling sanctions" when the only thing that does is starve their people. Seriously. When has the UN ever actually had power to do something? All those politicians bullshitting about how Israel's so cruel and brute and all the crap when they're turning a blind eye to all those other nations out there. You know all those Arabs bitching about the Palestinians and Palestinian State? Well at one point, there was one. It was Gaza and West bank and Half of Jerusalem. But they were so fucking dumb they tried to take over the rest. And you know how that worked out. But, even after that, the Palestinians were allowed to stay. But then came the Six Day War. All of those damn Palestinians thought the Israelis would lose and they would come back and take over. So they left. They left to Jordan, and set up makeshift camps, all thinking they would soon go back home. But then Israel won. And they didn't permit those Palestinians to come back, and for good reason too. Have you heard this quote? The Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Do you know how many times they have sat down and the Israeli's have put the option of Gaza and West Bank on the table? Far too many. And they have all been rejected because of their dumbassdness. Anyways, I didn't mean to go into a rant lol.[/rant]

you need more than 200 nukes to kill a big enemy country. israel want to have the possibility to kill all countries in the world if attacked.
300-400 is out of a believable source.
for example:
http://www.dradio.de/dlf/sendungen/einewelt/1602974/
the main source is from a former israeli atom scientist. he worked there for many years. now, the mossad is hunting him!lol