Jelco's TWG: Game over: Wolves win!

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trickser
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Postby trickser » Mon Jan 16, 2012 12:47 pm

Cooper42 wrote:I'm not convinced there's any totally foolproof way for us to contact one another with guarantees that we're human. If microchip knows a way that cannot be faked, I'd be surprised.

If you feel this is cheating the obvious thing to do is run it by Jelco.

Well, it's foolproof. Jelco will understand how this works. But there is nothing he can do to un-spoil the game for me. I am done with the game. Bye.
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Postby Xocrates » Mon Jan 16, 2012 1:11 pm

trickser, stuff like this, and worse, has happened in plenty of the past TWGs, sometimes it was allowed, sometimes it wasn't. If you have a problem with it take it to jelco and let him decide.

I understand that you don't approve of it, but that doesn't give you a reason to try and sabotage the game itself.

EDIT: Also, if you're human, it's incredibly easy to undermine microchip's tactic. Which, by the way, doesn't allow us to identify human specials.
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Postby Xarlaxas » Mon Jan 16, 2012 2:05 pm

Since when does weed let people know whether someone is a human or not? Does it oracular powers now? ;P

I'm thinking that shinygerbil is next most suspicious after phelanpt and seitaro, so I guess that's where my vote goes for now, I'm starting to get a bit confued by all this in-detph analysis. :P
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Postby shinygerbil » Mon Jan 16, 2012 2:53 pm

So far, to me, DTNC Vicious looks like the most suspicious(, and other things ending with -icious?)

I feel I've got a pretty clear idea of who is voting based on others' actions, which is to say by using either intuition or logic, and who is voting on some kind of agenda. Obviously Vicious falls into the latter type to me, but he is not the only one.
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Postby xander » Mon Jan 16, 2012 8:05 pm

If trickser decides to keep playing, I will unvote him. On the other hand, if he is quitting anyway, then why risk accidentally lynching a human who is still in the game? It seems better to lose only one person during the day, rather than two.

xander
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Postby zjoere » Mon Jan 16, 2012 8:06 pm

Xarlaxas wrote:Since when does weed let people know whether someone is a human or not? Does it oracular powers now? ;P



hey I wanted to make a weed joke about the hash! :( Do that again I'll have no choice other than to lynch you.
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Postby zjoere » Mon Jan 16, 2012 10:47 pm

Maybe we'll get a bit wiser if we compare the voting on the two days:
day1 wrote:1)The Jordy bandwagon:
Xarlaxas
Xander
Feud
Vicious

2) The anti-bandwagon voting:
Mas Tnega
Trickser
MrBunsy
zjoere
Phelanpt
Jordy

3)Other votes:
ybniar
Xocrates
shinygerbil
cooper42

4)Not voting:
Microchip08
Seitaro



day2 wrote:
Post one-hour-warning changes:
shinygerbil
Xarlaxas
ynbniar


Phelanpt
Mas Tnega
Cooper
Xocrates
microchip
trickser
Viscious

trickser
MrBunsy
shinygerbil
Phelanpt

someone else
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Postby microchip08 » Mon Jan 16, 2012 11:16 pm

xander wrote:If trickser decides to keep playing, I will unvote him. On the other hand, if he is quitting anyway, then why risk accidentally lynching a human who is still in the game? It seems better to lose only one person during the day, rather than two.

xander


Doing so would give the wolves a free night, wouldn't it?
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Postby zjoere » Tue Jan 17, 2012 9:43 am

I got my first exam tomorow so I'm not sure if I'll be able to log in again for the end of the day. My vote currently goes to DTNC Vicious. I'm not sure if there even is a possibility of quiting this game?
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Postby Cooper42 » Tue Jan 17, 2012 2:27 pm

zjoere wrote:I got my first exam tomorow so I'm not sure if I'll be able to log in again for the end of the day. My vote currently goes to DTNC Vicious. I'm not sure if there even is a possibility of quiting this game?
If trickser just goes inactive, won't he eventually suffer Seitaro's fate?

@microchip assuming trickser 'quits' by going inactive, I'm guessing that xander's reasoning seems similar to why Seitaro was a lynch target by some yesterday. Inactives are gonna die anyway, so, statistically speaking, lynching an inactive player is a decently logical enough option; there are more humans than wolves, so better to lose just one person during a day than two. Given we have no idea how many wolves there were at the start, nor are now, I can't put odds on that. I don't know what you mean by a 'free night'?

xander's going for soft targets again. He was on Mas' watchlist alongside Phelanpt yesterday. He has a similar voting style to Phelanpt; quiet voting, yet important for (mainpulating?) lynching outcomes.

However, I remain most worried about Viscious and trickser as well as shinygerbil and Phelanpt at the end of yesterday, but I honestly can't make much of it. Simply put, I'm not entirely sure where to assign incompetence / confused (rather than confusing) behaviour and where to assign knowledge-based and strategic voting (although I have a pretty good idea...).

@shinygerbil: why vote for Viscious today, after the last minute, fairly dangerous (for you at least), change to trickser yesterday?
Surely, if you have suspiscions about trickser, the best place to put your vote is on him? Sure, he may get killed off as an inactive -if- he quits. But better, as xander says, to remove someone who's going anyway. Removing someone going anyway reduces the risk of losing two humans (which is statistically more likely). Especially so if the inactive is a cause for suspiscion.
Whoever you vote for, the government wins.
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Postby MrBunsy » Tue Jan 17, 2012 7:20 pm

Don't like xander's logic there and don't know what else to go on. Will keep an eye on the next couple of hours!
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Postby ynbniar » Tue Jan 17, 2012 7:24 pm

I've not seen anything new.

Lynch shinygerbil
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Postby microchip08 » Tue Jan 17, 2012 7:29 pm

Cooper42 wrote:
zjoere wrote:I got my first exam tomorow so I'm not sure if I'll be able to log in again for the end of the day. My vote currently goes to DTNC Vicious. I'm not sure if there even is a possibility of quiting this game?
If trickser just goes inactive, won't he eventually suffer Seitaro's fate?

@microchip assuming trickser 'quits' by going inactive, I'm guessing that xander's reasoning seems similar to why Seitaro was a lynch target by some yesterday. Inactives are gonna die anyway, so, statistically speaking, lynching an inactive player is a decently logical enough option; there are more humans than wolves, so better to lose just one person during a day than two. Given we have no idea how many wolves there were at the start, nor are now, I can't put odds on that. I don't know what you mean by a 'free night'?


If one lynches a walking corpse, the day will be a pointless exercise; so the wolves basically get an extra night (because nothing was accomplished during the day).
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Postby xander » Tue Jan 17, 2012 7:45 pm

microchip08 wrote:
xander wrote:If trickser decides to keep playing, I will unvote him. On the other hand, if he is quitting anyway, then why risk accidentally lynching a human who is still in the game? It seems better to lose only one person during the day, rather than two.

xander


Doing so would give the wolves a free night, wouldn't it?

If we lynch someone who has quit or is inactive, then only one person dies that day. If we lynch someone else, then two people die. If we can be relatively certain that the active person is a wolf, then we should lynch them. However, I have zero information to make me believe strongly enough that anyone is a wolf, and I would rather give the seer time to do his work. If only one person dies today, then the seer has an extra day to figure out who is who.

xander
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Postby jelco » Tue Jan 17, 2012 8:11 pm

One-hour warning!

The day will end at 20:15 GMT. Get your votes in before then.

Jelco
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