Jelco's TWG: Game over: Wolves win!

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Phelanpt
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Postby Phelanpt » Sat Jan 14, 2012 12:19 am

microchip08 wrote:Seitaro, because his inactivity is making me apprehensive. I'm also worried about Phelanpt, but four-way ties are, at least at this point in Morning 2, more beneficial than me breaking the tie (so that the wolves are more likely to act to save one of their number [as it's more likely with a three-way tie that one of them is lupine than a two-way tie {and as such more likely with a four way tie <and I've run out of brackets>}]).

Hopefully I make sense.
By my count, it's now Seitaro / shinygerbil / xander / phelanpt, two votes each.

Do you actually believe Seitaro could be a lurking wolf?
And how is it more beneficial to have this 4-way tie than the previous 3-way tie?
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Postby Cooper42 » Sat Jan 14, 2012 12:59 am

Phelanpt wrote:
microchip08 wrote:Seitaro, because his inactivity is making me apprehensive. I'm also worried about Phelanpt, but four-way ties are, at least at this point in Morning 2, more beneficial than me breaking the tie (so that the wolves are more likely to act to save one of their number [as it's more likely with a three-way tie that one of them is lupine than a two-way tie {and as such more likely with a four way tie <and I've run out of brackets>}]).

Hopefully I make sense.
By my count, it's now Seitaro / shinygerbil / xander / phelanpt, two votes each.

Do you actually believe Seitaro could be a lurking wolf?
And how is it more beneficial to have this 4-way tie than the previous 3-way tie?
Answer as to why 4 way better than 3? Is right there in what you just quoted.
The more people involved in a tie, the more likely that one of them is a wolf. Which is more likely to trigger a response from the other wolves.

Which is why - given microchip's logic - someone should probably vote for Viscious and make it 5-way.

However, increasing the number of people involved in a tie also looks a tad suspiscious - it increases the chances of survival of any wolf in the tie during a coin toss situation.

Making microchip's extension of the tie a possible wolf tactic.

As such, I'm joining those in waiting to see who breaks the tie in interest.
Whoever you vote for, the government wins.
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Phelanpt
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Postby Phelanpt » Sat Jan 14, 2012 1:34 am

Cooper42 wrote:However, increasing the number of people involved in a tie also looks a tad suspiscious - it increases the chances of survival of any wolf in the tie during a coin toss situation.

Making microchip's extension of the tie a possible wolf tactic.

As such, I'm joining those in waiting to see who breaks the tie in interest.

This was what I had in mind. To me, it seems to help a wolf (if there is one in the tie) more than it does us.
Thank you for replying for Microchip, though. :roll:
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Postby Mas Tnega » Sat Jan 14, 2012 5:04 am

4-way ties are at best a free day for wolves and at worst a humanity-dividing clusterfuck. This is because the best thing that can happen is that a human dies. Obvious, yes but now consider the following:
  1. How likely that is to happen on its own?
  2. How easy is it to force it?
  3. How likely is it that they would need to?
  4. How the hell do you get information from a 4-way tie?
My Answers:
  1. I'd guess at 75%
  2. The wolf team needs only exercise the rest of its voting muscle anywhere else in the tie. In a two-way, this would be obvious but in a four-way, it's actually suspicious to not do it.
  3. One wolf is fairly likely but increasingly easy to handle for wolves to handle with each way introduced. Two is like hoping to be dealt 20s in Blackjack: Strong if and when it comes up but not worth building your entire strategy around it.
  4. You don't. Spreading the votes thin reduces the effort required get a wolf out of the situation and it all blends in easily with actual human behaviour.

I just don't think it warrants attempting.


I really can't agree with the voting at the moment. Lynching Seitaro's just a waste of a day (don't think I didn't notice Xarlaxas resolving to vote for him when the reason for suspecting him becomes irrelevant) and the reasoning for voting xander is just a weak appeal to hypocrisy. Actually, while we're on that topic:
DTNC Vicious wrote:how did i not make a reason on my last vote
You wrote "I agree", paraphrased zjoere's interpretation of xander's reasoning and then voted xander. None of these three actions qualify as original thought let alone giving your own reasons for your actions.

I really don't know what to say about the shinygerbil votes. One's not-random-honest and the other's the product of an aggressive nitpicking campaign.

Needless to say, I stand by my own vote.
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Postby Xarlaxas » Sat Jan 14, 2012 11:29 am

If Seitaro just goes and posts "I'm alive and vote for X" then vanishes again that makes him completely un-suspicious? I don't think so. . . .

Of all the people in the tie at the moment I think the most suspicious (after seitaro) would be shinygerbil because of his constant "wolf logic" posts and Mas won't be happy until I vote for someone it seems. :P
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Postby Phelanpt » Sat Jan 14, 2012 1:12 pm

I don't like Vicious' play style, and would likely policy vote him to see more detailed reasoning, but right now the most suspicious to me is trickser. Even though he says he still has reasons to vote xander, he switches to shinygerbil because of "intuition".

Edit: Retracted
Last edited by Phelanpt on Sat Jan 14, 2012 8:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby trickser » Sat Jan 14, 2012 1:58 pm

Phelanpt wrote:I don't like Vicious' play style, and would likely policy vote him to see more detailed reasoning, but right now the most suspicious to me is trickser. Even though he says he still has reasons to vote xander, he switches to shinygerbil because of "intuition".

I am surprised about the clever thoughts about the game some players have. I mean voting tables and benefits of ties and so on. But I have found little that would help me making a decision.

Only thing I know is wolfs need to pretend while humans don't, so I am looking for this. But the more I look the more it seems to me everyone is a pretender. And making a choice among the suspicious ones its what I call intuition.
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Postby MrBunsy » Sat Jan 14, 2012 2:44 pm

And on that note I'm going for trickster, while the logic is correct it's the sort of thing I'd say if I were a wolf, and on day 2 I don't think there's enough info yet to figure out who the wolfies are.
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Postby Cooper42 » Sat Jan 14, 2012 3:58 pm

Phelanpt seems to be asking for better reasoning from others, and then giving little for his own.
Phelanpt's day one strategy was odd. Giving no reasoning for votes, and yet casting votes which caused a lot of sway in the outcome.

Today he's being even more worrying.

I've already aired my concerns about Phelanpt's voting on day one, and am beginning to agree with Xocrates that acting low-key and yet coming up with worryingly manipulative voting is really concerning. He changed on day one, with no explanation. He begins voting again today with no explanation (albeit, I guess, a clearly obvious vote for the inactive player).

And then keeps demanding further explanation of votes from others, and hardly going into any nuance about his own decisions.



Also, how does disagreeing with Microchip's extension of a 3-way to a 4-way tie square with the two votes for trickser just now.

(Phelanpt's disagreement with mc's logic was the same as that in my post; I was only clarifying what I thought I understood by microchip's logic, but also I then showed it to be problematic. Problems which Mas much more accurately summarised)

Sure, Xarlaxas broke the tie, but we now, becasue of the trickser votes have an increasing number of alternatives to chose from.
We're getting an increasingly fractured voting landscape, which only helps wolves.

Admitedly, the trigger for voting on my suspicions here was Phelanpt privately accusing me of working with microchip as a wolf. Basing that accusation on one post just gets my back up. I know mentioning this looks odd. Either I'm indignant or, you know, am a bad wolfie alongside mc who's been ousted. I am just annoyed at the accusation, but make of it what you will.

I anycase, I make one post picking out some nuance in an argument and I'm in cahoots? If you have suspiscions, air them publicly. And act on them. As I am.
Whoever you vote for, the government wins.
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Postby microchip08 » Sat Jan 14, 2012 5:06 pm

Code: Select all

Phelanpt: 3
shinygerbil: 3

xander: 2
trickser: 2
Sietaro: 1

(As has been established before, I can't count. So take that with a pinch of salt.)

If I understand correctly, Sietaro's two-day count finishes today; so they'll drown in a vat of naturally occurring chocolate this afternoon (if they're human; if they're not [and PMs count as activity], we can lynch them tomorrow]). As such, there's no point in lynching them, nor is there any point in a tie any further (as Mas pointed out, and considering dusk is approaching). Hence, vote retracted.

In my 'suspicion index', trickser and xander rank as more suspicious in my mind than shinygerbil. Oh, and I got this PM from the same hostmask as Phelanpt had previously connected on:

Code: Select all

[2012-01-14 12:21:05 UTC] <Traitor> you don't happend to be a werewolf, do you?
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Postby zjoere » Sat Jan 14, 2012 8:16 pm

Wait I think I just realised something. If seitaro doesn't show up he'll die at the end of the day. But this will not replace a lynching. Wich means that two people will die. Isn't it more likely that two humans die in that case? You know statisticly speaking? So I'm changing my vote to Seitaro. Someone else should probably do the math. Don't feel like calculating probabilities right now.
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Postby shinygerbil » Sat Jan 14, 2012 8:19 pm

Well it seems I'm pretty close to being lynched with as yet only spurious reasoning attached, so in the interest of saving my own skin (and thus of course aiding the village, given that I am human) I shall vote Phelanpt[redacted] which is coincidentally one of the most suspicious in my eyes (though there are a few vying for that honour.)

I also want to point out that aside from trickser, Xarlaxas also stated that Seitaro was *more* suspicious than me, but still voted for me rather than Seitaro. So, two people stated that I was less suspicious than another but still voted for me. In other words, I'm still feeling like my hypothetical Person A. :roll:
Last edited by shinygerbil on Sat Jan 14, 2012 9:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Phelanpt » Sat Jan 14, 2012 8:25 pm

I also don't think shinygerbil is the most suspicious person here, but I find myself forced to vote for him.

edit: retracted
Last edited by Phelanpt on Sat Jan 14, 2012 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby microchip08 » Sat Jan 14, 2012 8:32 pm

Well, this time I'm not going to sit back whilst there's a tie. Phelanpt.

Edit: Anyone know who's from New Jersey? They're admitting to being the traitor in IRC (and not Phelanpt, who's .pt)
Last edited by microchip08 on Sat Jan 14, 2012 9:59 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Postby Phelanpt » Sat Jan 14, 2012 8:34 pm

It's a wasted lynch...and I have some info to pass to someone I could trust. Sadly, I'm not sure I can trust anyone so far.

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