Nuclear Politics (continuing debate from DEFCON General Frm)

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furtim
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Postby furtim » Fri Oct 13, 2006 7:04 pm

Sylph-DS wrote:Is there such a thing as good and bad/evil?


I would argue yes! But:

And if there is, what would their definitions be?


That's the problem, isn't it?

I think the book The Science of Good & Evil is a pretty excellent primer on the subject. It examines the concept of morality as an evolved response to the very real problems of building a functioning social group. From a pure-ish evolutionary model, "good" is something you do that successfully spreads your genes and "evil" is something that someone else does to you that stops you from doing so. As the prologue to Shakespeare's Troilus and Cressida (WARNING: Pretentious yet flippant literary reference not suitable for small children.) puts it, "That's the quarrel." We're all built to form in-groups for mutual cooperation and to fight against out-groups to ensure your group's supremacy.

That's what all this is really about. Christian versus Muslim, Empire versus Empire, Everyone versus Fascism, Communist versus Capitalist, Christian versus Muslim mk. II (a.k.a. the "War on Terror"); all of these are about in-groups and out-groups. Peace is only achieved within a group. Europe and the US have vast cultural and political differences, really, yet they allied for 60 years because they were more similar to each other than to those dastardly Reds out on the Steppes. With that enemy gone, disagreements of some kind were bound to pop up eventually.

In this case, what's really going on is that Europe and the international community are objecting to the US' unilateralism more than to any particular policy. The past six years have been the US administration showing again and again that it sees the US as a self-sufficient island and wants less and less to do with anybody else unless they're useful for our own goals. That is to say, we're in a world now where the US is shrinking its in-group, which means it will inevitably come into greater conflict with others.

Europe, in particular, feels betrayed, because we used to be best buddies and now the US is dismissing all their reservations and going alone whenever we get a chance. That triggers completely natural and necessary resentment. Necessary because that's how we keep ourselves and each other honest. Anger is a way to avoid "fool me twice" scenarios. Anger makes it possible for reasonable, peaceful people to punish cheaters to keep them from cheating again. So when a perceived alliance is broken, we (or Europe) have to feel anger about it.

World Peace is really just a matter of including as many people as possible in our in-groups. Which is, of course, far easier said than done. There will always psychopathic individuals and groups who refuse to consider anyone else within their group and exploit others for selfish gains. And building the connections between disparate groups in the first place is already a difficult problem. But there's definitely a wrong way to do it. And selfishness and psychopathic rejection of cooperation will equally definitely get punished.
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Postby Stewsburntmonkey » Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:03 am

Sylph-DS wrote:The only thing that could cause world peace among human beings is a common enemy, for example, an alien invasion.


I'm not sure that is true. If we ever get to the point where we can produce virtually infinite resources peace could happen (as everyone could have virtually whatever they wanted and so have no reason to start a fight).
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Postby NeoThermic » Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:00 am

Stewsburntmonkey wrote:
Sylph-DS wrote:The only thing that could cause world peace among human beings is a common enemy, for example, an alien invasion.


I'm not sure that is true. If we ever get to the point where we can produce virtually infinite resources peace could happen (as everyone could have virtually whatever they wanted and so have no reason to start a fight).


Excluding the whole physically impossible factor, even if we could produce infinate resources, we would still have arguments over land ownership, which is the cause of many a war through out the past and indeed the present.

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Postby Stewsburntmonkey » Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:41 am

NeoThermic wrote:Excluding the whole physically impossible factor, even if we could produce infinate resources, we would still have arguments over land ownership, which is the cause of many a war through out the past and indeed the present.

NeoThermic


It wouldn't need to infinite, just virtually infinite. If we got fussion power working we could get reasonably close by having basically infinite energy.

Wars over land are generally wars over resources and power. If we had sufficient resources these sorts of things wouldn't be big enough deal to start a war over. If you have sufficient resources the whole idea of nations and societies begins to break down anyway and things devolve to an almost entirely personal level.

I'm not saying this is terribly likely to happen in our lifetimes, but I think it could happen at some point.
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Postby KingAl » Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:44 am

If people did indeed come upon a virtually infinite supply of resources, those controlling its distribution would almost certainly throttle it to maintain its value. I'm reminded of diamonds.
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Postby xander » Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:53 am

KingAl wrote:If people did indeed come upon a virtually infinite supply of resources, those controlling its distribution would almost certainly throttle it to maintain its value. I'm reminded of diamonds.

You are also forgetting Malthas -- a population will grow to its carrying capacity. If the carrying capacity increases, so does the population. This is true across all kingdoms of life on Earth. Humans are no different, at least, not as far as I can tell.

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Postby Stewsburntmonkey » Sat Oct 14, 2006 3:06 am

xander wrote:You are also forgetting Malthas -- a population will grow to its carrying capacity. If the carrying capacity increases, so does the population. This is true across all kingdoms of life on Earth. Humans are no different, at least, not as far as I can tell.

xander


That actually may not be true for humans. If you look at the wealthiest countries in the world they are also the ones with the lowest birth rates. If you look at the fertility rate of countries (how many babies the average woman has during her life) Canada, virtually all of Europe, Russia, China, South Korea, Japan, and Australia have a fertility rate below 2 (which means they are not producing enough kids to increase their populations on their own). Most of the other first world nations that are not in this "shrinking" situation have fertility rates right around 2 meaning they are stable. The population growth is almost entirely confined to the third world.

Part of this is due to the use of contraception in first world nations and part of it also that children are seen as resources in many poor nations (as they once were everywhere).

As for controling the source of the resources, it would be hard for someone to do so. They would have to defend themselves against the entire world. At somepoint who ever controlled the resources would likely realise the with virtually infinite resouces they gain virtually nothing by hording them.
Last edited by Stewsburntmonkey on Sat Oct 14, 2006 3:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby xander » Sat Oct 14, 2006 3:08 am

Stewsburntmonkey wrote:
xander wrote:You are also forgetting Malthas -- a population will grow to its carrying capacity. If the carrying capacity increases, so does the population. This is true across all kingdoms of life on Earth. Humans are no different, at least, not as far as I can tell.

xander


That actually may not be true for humans. If you look at the wealthiest countries in the world they are also the ones with the lowest birth rates. If you look at the fertility rate of countries (how many babies the average woman has during her life) Canada, virtually all of Europe, Russia, China, South Korea, Japan, and Australia have a fertility rate below 2 (which means they are not producing enough kids to increase their populations on their own). Most of the other first world nations that are not in this "shrinking" situation have fertility rates right around 2 meaning they are stable. The population growth is almost entirely confined to the third world.

Part of this is due to the use of contraception in first world nations and part of it also that children are seen as resources in many poor nations (as they once were everywhere).

Indeed, you are correct. However, I would counter with the fact that first world nations use a disproportionate amout of resources. Oil, water, coal, even food. That being said, it is possible that humans may figure out a way to truely stabilize population levels on a global scale. That would be neat.

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Postby Stewsburntmonkey » Sat Oct 14, 2006 3:14 am

xander wrote:Indeed, you are correct. However, I would counter with the fact that first world nations use a disproportionate amout of resources. Oil, water, coal, even food. That being said, it is possible that humans may figure out a way to truely stabilize population levels on a global scale. That would be neat.

xander


Yes, in humans the amount of resources used by individuals is not fixed as it is for other forms of life. At a certain point we cease expanding by procreation and start expanding by consumption.

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