Pseudo Complete 1v1 Stats: Stat Site Evolving. 98% Complete

In-depth tactical discussion on how to lose the least

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Want to lend your time...

Yes
11
73%
No
1
7%
Would like to, but don't have time, not even 20 minutes a day. :(
3
20%
 
Total votes: 15
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Pox
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Postby Pox » Mon Mar 10, 2008 2:08 am

Xocrates wrote:snippety snip snip mcsnipp


:shock:

I'll change the win ratio formula now, and might implement the predictomatic sometime today... thanks for the help :P

EDIT: Okay, the Oracle is up! Give it a few tests... seems to be working so far:

Ace Rimmer with Asia has a 99% chance of beating Pox with Russia.


;)
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Postby NukeLord » Mon Mar 10, 2008 9:09 am

Xocrates's Magic Predict-O-Matic Ladder Match Replacement Quasi-Oracle-like Device wrote:Ace Rimmer with Asia has a 126% chance of beating NukeLord with Russia.

Now I remember why I stopped playing in the ladder, the gods are obviously against me.
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Postby Pox » Mon Mar 10, 2008 9:17 am

NukeLord wrote:
Xocrates's Magic Predict-O-Matic Ladder Match Replacement Quasi-Oracle-like Device wrote:Ace Rimmer with Asia has a 126% chance of beating NukeLord with Russia.

Now I remember why I stopped playing in the ladder, the gods are obviously against me.


Hehe, I was wondering about the few >100% results I saw... I'm pretty sure my code is a correct implementation of Xocrates' solution though :/
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Postby Xocrates » Mon Mar 10, 2008 12:22 pm

That's weird! The formula was designed to never go above 100%, even if one player with 100% win ratio vs another with 0% win ratio played on Asia Vs Russia.

You sure you got the formula right, pox?

EDIT: hehe, oops.

F1=(1+DW/((DW^2)^0.5+10E12))/2

F2=(1-DW/((DW^2)^0.5+10E12))/2


Missed a couple minus here, it should be:

F1=(1+DW/((DW^2)^0.5+10E-12))/2

F2=(1-DW/((DW^2)^0.5+10E-12))/2

or:

F1=(1+DW/((DW^2)^0.5+0.000000000001))/2

F2=(1-DW/((DW^2)^0.5+0.000000000001))/2


Those are there only to prevent Div by 0 errors


EDIT2: By the way, is it possible to set that if you don't select the continents (i.e. both players having the same continent) it will just calculate the chances of one player beating the other? (basically, set CWR to 50%)
Last edited by Xocrates on Mon Mar 10, 2008 7:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Tripper » Mon Mar 10, 2008 2:35 pm

Xocrates wrote:
rus|Mike wrote:Jesuis.


Just be glad the other ones fell through.

Really glad


Well I'm having a look at the equations but I can't work out what the 10E12's are doing there. I mean, a factor of a trillion?

As far as I can see, it just nerfs the value of F1 and F2 back to ~0.5.

Cheers, Tripper

Edit- Pox's correction crossed with this, lol

Edit 2 - as far as I can see, this boils down to:

W = C + D (if D is negative) or C + 2C*D (if D is positive)

So I don't see how the two probabilities will add up to 1 (they add up to 1+ D - 2CD)

(I'm abbreviating continent win to C and score difference to D)

Would xocrates possibily post to a link showing working? /me is confused ...
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Postby Xocrates » Mon Mar 10, 2008 2:58 pm

Tripper wrote:Well I'm having a look at the equations but I can't work out what the 10E12's are doing there. I mean, a factor of a trillion?


Read the post above yours :wink:

The formulas are quite simple. Most of the stuff is so they can work on a purely mathematical way.

Basically they boil down to:

If player 1 is better than player 2, then w = continent win ratio + (1-continent win ratio)*the difference between the skill of the players

If player 1 is worse than player 2, then w = continent win ratio + (continent win ratio)*the difference between the skill of the players(which in this case is negative)

F1 and F2 will basically be either 1 or 0 depending on the player is better or worse than the other. If the players are evenly matched it will be 0.5, but that's okay because the difference between the players is 0 therefore all the terms except for the continent win ratio vanish.
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Postby Tripper » Mon Mar 10, 2008 3:25 pm

Ho hum - take it all back

Still can't work out where the error in my working was thoug :oops:
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Postby Ace Rimmer » Mon Mar 10, 2008 3:25 pm

Ace Rimmer with Asia has a 89% chance of beating rus|Mike with Russia.
rus|Mike with Asia has a 88% chance of beating Ace Rimmer with Russia.

Hehe, bested you again rus|Mike.

Anyway, /me loves the predict-o-matic! Now when the challenge final is played, I can check my odds. :D
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Postby Ace Rimmer » Mon Mar 10, 2008 3:42 pm

Double post, just cause I think I checked all the assigned dates and a couple from the end of October are the only ones I could find that were not logged. Tripper? rus|Mike?
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Postby Tripper » Mon Mar 10, 2008 3:55 pm

Those were me :oops: - I haven't had the time to come back to them (barely had time to play!). rus|Mike didn't answer when I called him out, but he's still welcome to them now ...

Cheers, Tripper
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Postby rus|Mike » Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:11 pm

Tripper wrote:rus|Mike didn't answer when I called him out, but he's still welcome to them now ...

:shock: :shock: What are you talking about?! I asked if anyone wants to give me his games in this thread not long ago and Ace Rimmer was the only one to reply so I logged his games range.
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Postby Tripper » Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:17 pm

rus|Mike wrote:
Tripper wrote:rus|Mike didn't answer when I called him out, but he's still welcome to them now ...

:shock: :shock: What are you talking about?! I asked if anyone wants to give me his games in this thread not long ago and Ace Rimmer was the only one to reply so I logged his games range.


Sorry I must have missed that, I haven't paid total attention to this thread, be my guest! I'm sure I offered mine to you much earlier though :P
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Postby rus|Mike » Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:30 pm

Pox, I don't think that Void games should be counted while calculating of the shortest and longest games. There's one game of me vs Ace on the main page and this game is actually Void :?
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Postby Ace Rimmer » Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:35 pm

What is that game? The one where I smashed your fleet just to prove the flaw in it?
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Postby rus|Mike » Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:36 pm

btw, Shouldn't the betting system involve somehow the history of games between two players?
rus|Mike with SA has a 51% chance of beating (MOR) with NA.

It's just not true :P With our current 6:1 status and a very good setup (for me) it has to be much more than a mere 51%.

And besides when a normalized-win-ratio-correction Hammer will be finaly unleashed on (MOR)? :lol:

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