Wow, this is really cool. Good job guys.
Personally I'd like to see the in-prison impacts of prolonged suppression fleshed out a bit more (before you start touching on the end-game impacts). I think suppressing an entire prison should be a bit like taking pain-killers for a broken arm. Sure, it makes the pain go away for now, but that arm is only going to get worse if you don't get proper treatment.
For example, being highly suppressed could start building up a prisoner's "Safety" need, where they start fearing for their lives and making decisions accordingly. They become more sneaky and violent, stashing contraband in other prisoner's cells, escalating to lethal force at the first sign of trouble, and banding together with other prisoners to maximise their chance of survival.
Imagine if you will, 8 or 9 fed up prisoners suspiciously following an armed guard around (while otherwise behaving). If the player doesn't take notice and react, then when no other staff are around, they all eventually pounce on the guard at once. Sure, maybe the guard kills 1 or 2, but the rest kill him and steal his gear. One guy takes the gun, another guy takes the keys.
At this point, guerrilla tactics kick in: Their goal at this point is to minimise casualties and get more guns. To this end, the unarmed prisoners hover around the guy with the gun, fighting only those who get too close. The guy with the gun makes a beeline for the armory, stopping only to shoot guards who are directly threatening his group. Should they succeed, their next goal becomes escape. Meanwhile, any prisoner who encounters an armed prisoner or a dead guard immediately becomes unsuppressed but feels a spike in their Safety need. This allows the prison thermometer to resume normal operation, potentially triggering a full-scale riot if conditions are bad enough.
In this, suppression becomes a system of counter-escalation, where prisoners react to brute force with more of their own. The more they believe their lives are in danger, the more prone they become to highly lethal guerrilla tactics.